Data center electricity demand, driven primarily by artificial intelligence and cloud computing, is pushing U.S. power consumption toward record levels in 2026. Industry forecasts project national electricity use of approximately 4,135 billion kilowatt-hours. Missouri has become a notable data center market: Ameren Missouri has signed binding agreements totaling approximately 2.2 gigawatts with large data center customers, equal to roughly 22% of its current statewide portfolio of about 10 gigawatts. Serving that demand will require additional generation, transmission, substations, and other grid investments. For Missouri commercial property owners, developers, and advisors, the issue is how those changes may affect electricity rates, reliability, property development, and the cost of operating existing buildings.
The data center debate is not limited to whether these facilities are good or bad for the economy. It concerns who pays for new infrastructure, how much new demand actually materializes, and how utilities, regulators, communities, and customers manage the resulting risks.
The national picture: rapid demand growth with uneven effects
For roughly two decades, U.S. electricity consumption remained relatively flat. Research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas describes artificial-intelligence-driven data centers as one of the forces reversing that trend, alongside transportation and industrial electrification.
The effects are not distributed evenly across the country. Data center projects tend to concentrate in locations with available land, fiber connectivity, tax and economic development policies, and access to large amounts of reliable electricity. A project in one region may have little direct effect on another region’s grid, while several projects in the same market can materially change local generation and transmission requirements.
The Dallas Fed’s 2026 working paper, “Processing Power: The Effect of Data Centers on Wholesale Electricity Markets,” estimates that existing data centers have increased wholesale electricity prices by approximately 3% to 5% on average nationwide. The study also finds that effects are substantially larger in regions with major data center corridors. Its projections vary significantly depending on how many proposed projects are built and how intensively they operate.
That range is important. Some proposed facilities are fully financed and under construction. Others remain in early-stage negotiations, appear in utility planning studies, or are being evaluated in multiple states at the same time. The Dallas Fed analysis therefore presents scenarios rather than a single forecast.
Grid operators have generally maintained adequate capacity under normal operating conditions. Planning margins become thinner, however, during extreme heat, severe cold, fuel disruptions, transmission outages, or periods when several large facilities reach high utilization simultaneously. The question is not only whether the system can serve average demand. It is whether the system can continue serving all customers during its most difficult hours.
Wholesale capacity prices have also varied by market. Some analyses have identified rising capacity prices in the PJM market, where utilities and customers pay for resources that must be available during future peak conditions. The effect on a particular commercial customer depends on its utility, rate class, location, demand profile, and exposure to wholesale or capacity-related charges.
Some states are responding by testing the underlying project pipeline. Texas, for example, has begun auditing certain proposed large-load projects and considering stronger financial requirements. The goal is to distinguish firm demand from speculative demand before utilities commit significant capital.
Missouri’s current position
Missouri enacted Senate Bill 4 in 2025, requiring electric utilities to establish large-load tariffs. The Missouri Public Service Commission approved large-load tariffs for Ameren Missouri and Evergy, effective in December 2025. Liberty Utilities’ large-load tariff proceeding remains separate.
The tariffs apply to very large customers, including data centers, and are intended to assign those customers a greater share of the costs associated with serving them. The Missouri PSC’s large-load tariff page identifies several key requirements:
- A minimum service contract of 12 years, with an option for a five-year ramp-up period.
- Financial collateral generally equal to approximately two years of minimum monthly bills.
- Exit fees and early termination fees.
- A minimum monthly demand charge based on 80% of the customer’s agreed contract capacity.
- Payment of grid connection costs and recovery of costs associated with serving the large load.
- Optional programs for additional generation and carbon-free resources at the large-load customer’s expense.
Utility officials have said data centers will pay their own connection costs and will not receive discounts. They also argue that large customers’ contributions to fixed system costs can help moderate rates for other customers by spreading those costs across a broader base.
Consumer advocates and PSC staff have raised a different concern: new power plants and systemwide infrastructure may still create costs that are eventually recovered from all ratepayers through general rate cases. In one PSC staff estimate, a single new 100-megawatt data center could increase existing customers’ bills by approximately $22 million per year until the new load is reflected in a rate case. Ameren officials dispute that analysis and maintain that resource planning serves the full customer base and that large-load customers should pay their assigned costs.
Missouri rate case coverage has also raised the possibility of rate increases beginning in mid-2027 as utilities invest in generation and grid infrastructure. The final effect will depend on regulatory decisions, project timing, actual data center load, utility cost allocation, and how much of the planned infrastructure serves other customers as well.
Sen. Josh Hawley has proposed that data centers build their own power plants. Missouri lawmakers and regulators continue to debate that and other approaches. The debate is about cost allocation and infrastructure responsibility, not simply about whether Missouri should participate in the data center market.
Potential benefits and costs for property owners
Data center growth can affect commercial property owners even when their buildings are not data centers. The effects may appear in utility tariffs, construction markets, land values, tax bases, grid reliability, and local development decisions.
Potential benefits
Large customers may contribute to fixed system costs. Long-term contracts, collateral, minimum bills, and exit fees are intended to reduce the risk that existing customers will pay for unused data center capacity.
Grid investment may improve reliability. New substations, transmission lines, and generation resources can increase system capacity. Those improvements may benefit other commercial and industrial customers if the infrastructure is planned and allocated effectively.
Economic development may increase. Data center construction can create demand for electricians, engineers, construction firms, equipment suppliers, security providers, and other building trades. New facilities may also expand local tax bases.
Missouri may attract related investment. Fiber networks, electrical contractors, engineering firms, and industrial suppliers may follow large infrastructure projects. This can create opportunities for developers and owners of commercial property near expanding service areas.
Potential costs and risks
New generation may place upward pressure on rates. The extent depends on contracts, regulatory treatment, construction costs, and whether projects serve only new large loads or the broader system.
Wholesale capacity prices may rise. In markets with limited reserve capacity, increased demand can affect capacity and energy prices. The impact on a specific Missouri property depends on its utility and tariff structure.
Projects may be delayed, reduced, or canceled. If utilities build infrastructure before projects become operational, regulators and customers may have to address the resulting unused or underused capacity.
Communities may face siting conflicts. Data centers can require substantial land, power infrastructure, backup generation, cooling equipment, and water resources. Local governments may need to evaluate zoning, roads, emergency services, noise, tax arrangements, and environmental impacts.
Commercial operating costs may become less predictable. Even where a property is not exposed directly to wholesale prices, utility rate cases, demand charges, and tariff changes can affect net operating income and tenant costs.
A practical information checklist
Property owners and advisors can improve decision-making by tracking the issue at the utility and property level.
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Monitor Missouri PSC proceedings. Review the PSC’s large-load tariff information, related orders, public comments, and future rate cases.
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Follow utility resource planning. Ameren Missouri integrated resource plan filings can provide information about expected load growth, proposed generation, transmission needs, and project timing.
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Review consumer and industrial filings. Consumers Council of Missouri and Missouri Industrial Energy Consumers provide perspectives on cost allocation, rate design, and customer impacts.
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Understand the property’s rate class. Owners should review demand charges, time-of-use provisions, tariff options, peak usage, and the extent to which utility costs are passed through to tenants.
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Attend public hearings when appropriate. PSC hearings and local development meetings can provide information that is not visible in a utility’s initial announcement.
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Use qualified energy advisors. A building engineer, energy consultant, utility-rate specialist, or financial advisor can model how possible rate changes may affect a specific property.
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Follow reliable reporting. STLPR, KCUR, the Missouri PSC, utility filings, and relevant trade publications offer different perspectives on the data center market and its development.
Reducing exposure through building improvements
Property owners cannot control the national data center pipeline or Missouri utility policy. They can control, in part, how much electricity their buildings require and how vulnerable their operations are to higher rates.
Efficiency improvements may include HVAC replacement, lighting controls, building-envelope improvements, high-efficiency water heating, solar generation, battery storage, and energy management systems. These projects can reduce consumption, lower peak demand, improve tenant comfort, and support resilience.
Financing is a separate question from project selection. C-PACE financing through Missouri Green Banc can fund eligible energy efficiency, renewable energy, water, and resiliency improvements through a voluntary property tax assessment. Terms may extend over the useful life of the improvement, and project costs can include eligible hard and soft costs.
Missouri Clean Energy District is Missouri’s statewide statutory PACE authority, serving communities across the state since 2011. Together with its nonprofit affiliate, Missouri Green Banc, the organizations have helped facilitate more than $2 billion in clean energy financing commitments and transactions through public-private partnerships and serve more than 300 member communities.
C-PACE is not a substitute for utility-rate analysis, engineering, or legal advice. It is one financing option for owners evaluating how to manage building costs in a changing electricity market.
The guiding principle is straightforward: the building pays for the upgrades.
For Missouri property owners, the immediate task is not to predict exactly how the data center market will develop. It is to understand the evidence, monitor the regulatory process, evaluate the property’s electricity exposure, and determine which improvements make financial sense under multiple rate scenarios.
This article is provided for general informational purposes and is not legal, tax, engineering, investment, or financial advice.
